Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Atlanta Fed Chief Prefers Current Rates | ForexGen



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Dennis Lockhart, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President, said that he prefers the current interest rate as the uncertainty regarding the growth and inflation prevails in U.S.

He thinks that the rates will be kept unchanged at 2 percent during the next meetings until the end of the year. But debates about raising the rates may arose if the inflation continues to accelerate, said Lockhart in an interview to Bloomberg:

From my perspective, I like policy where it is. I view the current situation as reasonably balanced, with a great deal of uncertainty around both the downsides to growth and the upsides to inflation.

Dennis Lockhart will start voting on the rate decision next year, until that he believes that the weak economic growth will help to damp the inflation. Declining oil and commodity prices should also help to fight the inflation without raising interest rate. But if consumer prices go significantly up Atalanta Fed President will support raising rates.

The Federal Open Market Committee is made up of five Washington Federal Reserve board members and five district bank presidents. Only New York Fed chief holds a permament position, while other four rotate each year. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled on September 16.

Pound Falls Against Dollar and Euro | ForexGen

The U.S. dollar declined today during the Asian session against other major currencies as the traders realized their profit, closing out long positions, and turned down possibility of the rate increase until the end of the year.

The U. S. currency retreated from the highest level against the Japanese yen since January 2. It also dropped from the highest against the euro since February 20. Although dollar also declined versus the pound, it’s still above its Friday close level against this currency.

British pound is probably the only major currency that isn’t fully following the correction against the dollar and will most likely continue to lose much against it. Great Britain currency is hurt by the fastest home price decline since 2002.

According to some currency analysts lower oil prices will reduce the U. S. CPI pressure, while the ongoing housing slump in the United States will continue long enough to prevent Federal Reserve from raising the interest rate before the year’s end.

EUR/USD rose from 1.4684 to 1.4732 as of 8:21 GMT today with a daily high at 1.4766. GBP/USD went just a little up — from 1.8644 to 1.8659 with a daily high at 1.8722. USD/JPY declined from 110.47 to 110.23 today.

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Pound Fell vs. USD, Euro before BoE Minutes | ForexGen

The Great Britain pound traded lower before the Bank of England’s release of the monetary policy minutes today. After the release, pound continued to slide down against both the greenback and the euro.

The U. K. currency continued to trade near a two-year low against the U.S. dollar today and fell for a third day against the euro as the minutes revealed that there was one vote for reducing the interest rates; 7 members including Governor Mervyn King voted for keeping the rates unchanged and one member vote for the rate increase.

The minutes also showed that the Bank of England expects the CPI rate to go up in the short-term, but also moderate significantly after several months as the probability, that the lower oil prices will dictate lower consumer prices, is high.

The pound rose yesterday against the U.S. dollar as the currency experienced a technical correction from the 12-day downside rally. Tim Besley, who voted to raise the rates, also noted yesterday that he expects lower inflation in the next year, cutting some traders’ expectations for the rate cut in 2008.

GBP/USD declined from 1.8668 to 1.8608 as of 8:51 GMT today — slightly more than it managed to gain yesterday, signaling that the current trend is still heading south. EUR/GBP rose insignificantly today — from 0.7920 to only 0.7929 as the euro is quite weak despite the yesterday's gains.

Yen Declines as Investors Buy Assets Abroad | ForexGen



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The Japanese yen fell from its more than two weeks maximum against the U.S. dollar today as the Japanese investors sought to buy foreign assets after their currency advanced so much yesterday.

The yen declined also against the euro and the Great Britain pound today after reaching a more than 3 months high against both of those currencies yesterday. There is a little hope left that the Bank of Japan will raise the 0.5 percent interest rate soon — definitely not in 2008 and probably not even in 2009.

According to the market analysts, Japanese traders prefer to send their money abroad to get a better return on investment. This factor is stemming the yen’s strengthening when the currency value reaches a certain limit.

The yen is expect to fluctuate between 105 and 110 per dollar range in the third quarter according to Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc.

USD/JPY rose from 108.47 to 108.88 as of 6:50 GMT today after reaching 108.13l yesterday — the lowest rate since August 5. EUR/JPY went up from 161.53 to 162.09 so far after bottoming at 160.20 yesterday — the minimum rate since May 13. GBP/JPY advanced from 203.63 to 204.29 today after reaching 201.79 yesterday — a level not seen since May 13.

Dollar Goes Down on Credit Market Losses | ForexGen

The U.S. dollar declined at a fastest pace in a month against the Japanese currency today as the credit market losses extended and the Federal Reserve probably won’t be able to raise the rates by the year’s end.

The dollar also fell against the euro and the Great Britain pound today as the previously expected rate difference decline became not so obvious to the Forex traders. Yen’s growth against the dollar was strong because the Japanese currency rose against other major currencies too as the carry trades unwound.

The concerns about the state of U.S. credit market turn investors to risk-aversion, thus stimulating conversion from USD to yen. According to some analysts dollar may drop to 1.5000 against the euro and 107.00 against the yen during the next trading week.

USD/JPY went down from 109.85 to 108.84 as of 7:46 GMT today — the fastest daily drop on this currency pair since July 15. EUR/USD rose from 1.4744 to 1.4796 with a daily high at 1.4833. GBP/USD gained from 1.8610 to 1.8661 with a daily maximum at 1.8702 so far.


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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Technical Analysis Can Help You Trade Better In Forex Trading | ForexGen


As a beginner there are two types of trading strategies you can adopt. The strategies are fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Technical analysis is a great tool to trade in the market and achieve success but I have always almost heard that people say that they had tough luck with charting tools and technical analysis software.

The truth is that you should know how to use the software effectively and then you can achieve success with the technical analysis. There are errors that people make which makes them think that technical analysis is not helping them.

The basic error traders make is that assuming that technical analysis will help them reach answers to what is the price is going to be. That is not going to happen, the technical analysis will always tell from the price trends and the historical trading patterns that yes at this level there will support and there may be levels where you can buy or sell. Never assume that there is going to be a price prediction. Use accurately the technical analysis and you will be making an informed decision about the prices. Also, make sure that you use breakout to your advantage and trade accordingly to make money.

Technical trading software help you guide easily through these issues but then as with computers you need human intelligence to decipher the data presented. So if the technical analysis software tells you a thing then make sure that you apply your intelligent guess on top of it. That way you will be reasonably sure that you will profit from the technical analysis.

As always the best strategy is to keep it simple when comes to using indicators. Stick to basic indicators and you will be on track. Use 5 or 6 or ten indicators and you will be confused as to what is happening to the charts at any given point in time.

Forex charting is simple tool to help you benefit but do not bend it to suit your decisions and never try to evaluate your past strategies from the forex charting. This is known as curve fitting and it will do more harm than good. There are guide available for giving you help on how to read the charts and also how to use them as excel based plug ins.

So make sure to use forex charting and technical analysis to your best advantage based on the rules above.

About The Author

The author has written extensively about the beginners forex trading here on http://www.beginnersforextrading.info

Learn How To Profit From Economic Indicators

By Amit Kheterpal

The traders all over the world trade about $3trillion daily in the world foreign exchange markets. The markets are open all over the world 24 hours a day and keep on absorbing new traders every day.

Now if you were to make some sense of what is happening in the currency markets and why there are swings across currency trading combinations then you will have to pay heed to a lot of economic news. There are several economic factors that change the view of the traders towards a particular currency.

Almost anywhere you go the most common term that you will hear is the Fed. Fed is short for Federal Reserve and this is the central bank of the United States. Now the chairman of the Fed always has the best interests of the economy so as to steer it clear of recession and help the people get respite from inflation. Any decision the fed makes an impression on how the US currency behaves. That said, you need to understand how each and every statement of the fed impacts the foreign exchange market.

The price of a currency is a factor of how the economy is shaping up. If the economy is not doing well, the price of the currency reflects that. The economic foundation of the country has to be sound for the currency to be strong. However whether you believe it or no, the currency traders pay particular attention to interest rates in the market and they are best indicators of the economic health of the country and also affect the general consumer market the most.

So read and absorb all economic news, listen to experts and then take a judgment call on the currency. For example let us look at the scenario where US currency is week that impacts all the major currencies in the world and also the economies of the countries which have pegged their currency to the dollar.

Most countries are now trying to peg their currency to a basket of currencies so that they are not dependent on one currency. This is really a diversification of risk for them. As a trader you should be able to understand how everything is interrelated. That said there are other indicators pertaining to individual economies that need to be understood in detail for the currency trading. Then there are detailed reports available which can be used to decipher and analyze the economic data.

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Forex News - How Can It Effect Currency Trading? | ForexGen

Regardless of whether you are simply playing around in Forex or doing a full-blown Forex trading situation, it is critical that you remain on top of the Forex news around the globe that could potentially effect your investments. As a matter of fact, some of the day traders around the globe say that following the news throughout the world can be somewhat addictive. With the globalization and decentralization of the news each and every day, it appears there is constantly something of interest that is happening.

Financial News

Just to give you a few examples that are interesting from recent Forex news stories that FX day traders have encountered. Forex currencies are always traded in a pairs type of situation, so stories typically refer to two different currencies. These forex news stories directly are correlated to finance and currency.

- A recent story that indicated that traders had just tipped to a net short position right on the same day that the British pound increased to a 200 plus point rally.

- Forex trader carefully monitors the U.S. housing slump, trying to estimate the market for the mortgage futures.

- When the United States federal reserve made it’’s latest rate cut, one Forex news service indicated that the overall expectations for the U.S. Dollar were “falling like a rock”.

- Fears of a recession within the United States might drive the
US dollar even lower than it already it is. (In Forex tradig, the reality that the dollar falls is not thought of as a negative, provided that the trader leverages the fall when making a trade for higher priced, higher value currencies around the world).

Political News

Financial and currency news are not just the only stories of news of interests to Forex traders as well as investors. Forex traders also have a lot of interest in political news that may have an impact on different countries currencies.

- Events that are tragic such as a political leader getting assassinated can effect the currency futures in the nation where the events happen and can also have a trickle down effect to the surrounding areas; for instance, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan.

- Disasters of the natural kind, such as a hurricane or typhoon or even an earthquake has the capability of consuming a great deal of a nations resources. Hence, Forex traders watch news of these types of natural disasters.

- Political events, such as the U.S. presidential election cycle has substantial consequences on the valuation of currency; hence, Forex news incorporates updates on presidential candidates, general elections, primary elections.

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